The Penn State Workforce Education & Development Initiative released on 27 June 2008 a report by Rose M. Baker and David L. Passmore, Benchmarks for Pennsylvania Plastics Industry, a report funded through a contract for the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative from the Employment and Training Administration of the US Department of Labor.

Although manufacturing, in general, is declining in the United States, plastics manufacturing is growing in many regions of Pennsylvania. Plastics firms in Pennsylvania supply more than one–half of the plastics materials required by Pennsylvania’s fastest growing industries. At the same time, Pennsylvania plastics manufacturers have opportunities to capture an increasing share of the Pennsylvania market for plastics, in spite of strong competition from neighboring counties (Canada and Mexico) and trading partners (Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, and Japan); out–migration of younger workers; relatively high energy costs; and needs for infusion of new investment and venture capital, for improvement of worker skills to fit the “new economy,” and for reduction of business costs of taxes and real estate.

This report was funded by a grant awarded under the President’s High Growth Job Training Initiative as implemented by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment & Training Administration. The information contained in this product was created by a grantee organization and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. All references to non-governmental companies or organizations, their services, products, or resources are offered for informational purposes and should not be construed as an endorsement by the Department of Labor. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it and is intended for individual organizational, noncommercial use only.

Two Penn State researchers who recently completed an analysis of the plastics manufacturing industry will discuss the implications of their findings at a breakfast seminar at Penn State Hazleton from 8 to 10 a.m., Fri., May 2, in the conference room 103 of the Charles T. Butler Teaching and Learning Resource Center. There is a $20 registration fee.

Sponsored by Penn State Hazleton Continuing Education and the Northeastern Pennsylvania Industrial Resource Center (NEPIRC), the event will feature Rose Baker, program manager of Penn State’s Economic and Workforce Analysis Initiative, and David Passmore, director of Penn State’s Institute for Research in Training and Development. The report, “Forecast of Employment and Job Openings in Pennsylvania Plastics Manufacturing, 2004–2017,” was funded through a contract between the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative and the Employment and Training Administration of the US Department of Labor. An online copy of the report is available at http://paplasticsjobs.notlong.com/.

According to Debra Conway, assistant director of Continuing Education at Penn State Hazleton, “There are more than 3,300 plastics manufacturing jobs in the region. Penn State’s report about the future of Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing has rich implications for the health of the area’s economy.” Plastics manufacturing is a productive and growing industry in Pennsylvania, but must face a number of threats if it is to maintain its growth and stability.

Baker said, “Output and productivity of the Pennsylvania plastics industry are likely to grow. As with all manufacturing in Pennsylvania and in the entire country, global competition and the need to reduce production costs will continue to affect plastics industry employment.” Passmore added, “There is constant pressure on the industry to stay competitive.” As an example, he noted that China’s low labor costs and undervalued currency allow its plastics manufacturers to operate at relatively low profit margins. These factors could allow China to increase its penetration of U.S. markets. Baker and Passmore will also discuss the affects of future U.S. policies and legislation, exports, increased competition, business-to-business sales, and other potential problems and opportunities.

To make a reservation or for information about this seminar and continuing education opportunities at Penn State Hazleton, contact Debra Conway at (570) 450-3136 or e-mail dxk40@psu.edu.

On 29 February 2008, Rose Baker and David Passmore made a presentation, Your Electrifying Utility Bill: A Forecast of Pennsylvania Economic and Workforce Changes Resulting from Removal of Electrical Rate Caps, to the Society for Workforce Education & Development on University Park Campus of Penn State. Links to their slide show and briefing paper are available at http://PAElectricRateCaps.notlong.com/.

In a nutsehell, electrical rate caps imposed under deregulation of the Pennsylvania electricity industry will be eliminated completely for residential, commercial, and industrial electricity customers by 2010. Prices per kilowatt–hour consumed for residences and businesses are anticipated to rise remarkably (40% to 70% increases are possible). Baker, Passmore, and their research team (Matthew Loiacono, Laura Miller, and Shakoor Ward) benchmarked the impact of a 10% electricity price increase on many Pennsylvania economic indicators, including private nonfarm employment, total economic output, gross state product, real disposable income, and population. These benchmarks were created using the Pennsylvania REMI Policy Insight model, a 70–sector structural economic and demographic forecasting and policy analysis model. Their simulations using Policy Insight are built on the notion that an increase in the price of electricity will alter household spending and add to industry production costs, resulting in loss of Pennsylvania jobs, income, economic output, and population.

A taste of the preliminary findings of the study for one of our simulation scenarios that examines the impact of each 10% increase in the price of electricity to residential and business customers:
   * 6,500 Pennsylvania jobs lost in 2010, rising to approximately 10,000 jobs in 2015.
   * $840 million in Pennsylvania economic output foregone in 2010; almost $1.8 billion in 2015.
   * Reduction of almost $1 billion in disposable personal income in 2010; over $1.1 billion in 2015.
   * Loss of approximately 3,700 residents due to out-migration in 2010; 16,000 in 2015.
Also, the impact of rate increases is likely to vary by income class. Pennsylvanians in the lowest income level could bear roughly two times the burden of the effects of price increases as could people in the highest income level.

The research on the impact of anticipated electricity price changes discuss in the 29 February meeting was conducted through the Penn State Workforce Education and Development (WED) Initiative, an alliance between the College of Education and Penn State Outreach to support the development of the workforce in Pennsylvania primarily through the application of Penn State resources to conduct economic and workforce analyses for employers, industry partnerships, nonprofit organizations, and government entities. For a guide to information on the web about the WED Initiative, see http://PSU–WEDI–Guide.notlong.com.

The Penn State WED Initiative often conducts research analysis about topics and issues—such as the electricity rate issue—that, at times, are the focus of vigorous debate and public attention and that frequently are associated with diverse stakeholders who represent divergent opinions. The Initiative adds value to this debate, attention, and discussion by conducting and reporting research and analysis decisions affecting economic and workforce development using the most objective approaches possible. The research and analysis of the WED Initiative are pursued independent of the commercial or political interests of any actual or potential sponsor of WED Initiative work. All research meeting the Initiative’s standards of quality for conduct and reporting is available to the public via links through “publications” and “presentations” keywords at this web site.
 

The Penn State Workforce Education and Development Inititaive released a report by Rose Baker and David Passmore, Forecast of Employment and Job Openings in Pennsylvania Plastics Manufacturing, 2004-2007. In brief, concluded in the report is that,

Between 2004 and 2017, Pennsylvania is forecast to lose employment and experience declining numbers of job openings in occupations in its plastics manufacturing industry as a result of manufacturing productivity increases and in spite of enjoying advantages relative to the entire US in delivered prices and in costs of production (except fuel). The industry is driven by net exports and by business–to–business sales. Disruptions of the export position of Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing or in increasing competition in Pennsylvania markets for Pennsylvania–manufactured plastics products would further degrade industry and occupational employment in the Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing industry.

Provided in the report is background about global competitive pressures faced by the Pennsylvania Plastics Industry and attempts to strengthen Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing through the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative. A structural model of the Pennsylvania economy, a Pennsylvania REMI Policy Insight Model, was applied to document and forecast the performance and competitiveness of Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing. Then, forecasts of numbers employed and job openings (created by economic change and the need to replace plastics workers who die, retire, or otherwise leave occupations) were produced from the economic model from historical data in 2004 and from forecasts for 2007, 2010, 2012, and 2017.

Some highlights of the forecast:

• All occupations are forecasted to have declining employment due to economic change in the Pennsylvania economy and its plastics manufacturing industry. In particular, Pennsylvania manufacturing is shedding jobs in large part due to large increases in productivity that are occurring.
• Production workers represent approximately one of every three workers in the Pennsylvania plastics industry in 2004 and over the forecast period from 2007 through 2017.
• Production workers are likely to experience the largest decline of numbers employed between 2004 and 2017 (-1,620 workers) and as an annual average for 2004, 2007, 2010, 2012, and 2017 (-322 workers).
• At the same time, production workers have the highest average total separations (1,443) and net separations (241). US Bureau of Labor Statistics standards for forecast reporting would indicate that there are zero job openings for production workers in Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing because net separations do not offset job losses due to economic change. Using this reporting criterion, almost none of the occupations represented in the Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing industry would be reported with other than zero forecasted job opportunities. Exceptions to this trend include operations specialties managers, business operations specialists, buyers and purchasing production supervisors, assemblers and fabricators, and engineers, but the numbers of opportunities forecasted are few.
• Switchboard operators could lose the highest percentage of employment between 2004 and 2017 (-34.6%), but this percentage represents a loss of 5 jobs. This figure demonstrates the need for caution in interpreting job forecast figures in the report because the magnitudes of percentages of employment declines depend on the number employed in the base year of the forecast.

This occupational forecast report was funded by a grant awarded under the President’s High Growth Job Training Initiative as implemented by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment & Training Administration.  The information contained in this report was created by the Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. All references to non-governmental companies or organizations, their services, products, or resources are offered for informational purposes and should not be construed as an endorsement by the Department of Labor.  This report is copyrighted by Penn State and is intended for individual organizational, non-commercial use only.

The Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative released a report, Current and Anticipated Labor Market for Long–Term Care Workers in Bucks and Montgomery Counties, by Rose Baker and David Passmore.

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania faces many challenges in delivering affordable, accessible, and quality LTC, not the least of which is the identification, development, and maintenance of a workforce that will meet these challenges. Careful investment is required to assure an adequate current and future supply of LTC workers in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

Contained in this report are the findings of demographic, economic, and workforce analyses that the Penn State WED Initiative conducted of the LTC labor market in Bucks and Montgomery counties. This report includes current and forecasted information describing structure of the labor market for LTC workers in Bucks and Montgomery counties. The horizon for forecasts conducted is 2015.

Information about training requirements is summarized from survey responses and focus group interactions with LTC providers in Buck and Montgomery counties. Moreover, uncertainties and opportunities in the market for LTC are reviewed. Information from this report is designed to contribute to strategic planning of resources and opportunities necessary to fulfill needs for LTC workers in Bucks and Montgomery counties. Implications for action are delineated from the information provided in this report for promoting an adequate supply of LTC workers in Bucks and Montgomery counties.
 

Rose Baker and David Passmore presented the findings of their study, Forecast of Employment and Job Openings in Pennsylvania Plastics Manufacturing, 2004–2017, to the Executive Committee of the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on 13 September 2007. This report is one of the deliverables from the Baker/Passmore project funded through a contract for the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative from the Employment and Training Administration of the US Department of Labor.

In brief, between 2004 and 2017, Pennsylvania is forecast to lose jobs and to experience declining numbers of job openings in occupations in its plastics manufacturing industry as a result of manufacturing productivity increases and in spite of enjoying advantages relative to the entire US in delivered prices and in costs of production (except fuel). The industry is driven by net exports and by business–to–business sales. Disruptions of the export position of Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing or in increasing competition in Pennsylvania markets for Pennsylvania–manufactured plastics products would further degrade industry and occupational employment in the Pennsylvania plastics manufacturing industry.

The meeting of the Executive Committee not only marked the roll-out of the occupational forecasting report from the Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative, of which the Institute for Research in Training and Development is a partner, but it also featured a presentation of the Pennsylvania Plastics Initiative’s career development website, Imagine Plastics.

The Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative is involved with Delta Development Group to provide demographic, economic, and workforce information to help Cranberry Township (Pennsylvania) for planning community economic growth and development.

Rose Baker and David Passmore are co-directors of Occupational forecasts for Pennsylvania plastics industries, a project within Pennsylvania plastics initiative: integrating workforce, economic development and education resources for a comprehensive industry response, which is a contract from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration to the Pennsylvania Workforce Investment Board and Penn State University. The Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative became incolved in this project during Fall 2006. The project is likely to continue through 2008.

See final report. 

Rose Baker and David Passmore are co-directors of Benchmarking performance and competitiveness of the Pennsylvania plastics industry, a project within Pennsylvania plastics initiative: integrating workforce, economic development and education resources for a comprehensive industry response, which is a contract from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration to the Pennsylvania Workforce Investment Board and Penn State University. The Penn State Workforce Education and Development Initiative became incolved in this project during Fall 2006. The project is likely to continue through 2008.

Rose Baker was director in Spring 2007 of Current and anticipated labor market for long–term care workers in Bucks and Montgomery counties, a project conducted by the Workforce Assessment Center, Office of Economic and Workforce Development, Penn State Outreach and funded by Montgomery County Workforce Investment Board. Some of the analyses and reporting for this project were conducted by staff of the Institute for Research in Training and Development.

 See the final report.

Rose Baker and David Passmore were co-directors in Spring 2007 of Forecast of economic, population, and employment consequences of the closing of the Willow Grove Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, a project conducted by the Workforce Assessment Center, Office of Economic and Workforce Development, Penn State Outreach and funded by Montgomery County Workforce Investment Board.